Withstand and start running
Will Poland's economic success inspire Ukraine?
Over the past 30 years, Poland has tripled the value of its economy, achieving one of the highest economic growth rates in the world, and its GDP growth has been one of the fastest in Europe, making it the sixth largest economy in the European Union.
What was the main driver of this dynamic trend?
The right political alliances came to the fore. After the end of the period of belonging to the Soviet bloc, Poles knew that they wanted to become part of the Western world. It was a great Polish dream that became a reality in 2004 when the Republic of Poland joined the EU. Since that landmark moment, the Polish state has been closely linked to the West. This is also reflected in the way it fulfils its alliance commitments, such as NATO membership, and in its trade patterns, mainly with the European Union.
Although technological progress has been a key factor in Poland's economic growth, it has not yet reached full technological saturation. Investment in innovation and the number of patents per capita remain well below the European average, but at the same time, this creates ample scope for further rapid progress.
In addition, the Polish state builds its advantages on a skilled and relatively cheap labour force, as well as on the creation of infrastructure and favourable conditions for foreign investors.
Migration after the opening of the EU borders has also been an important element that has stimulated growth. Many young, ambitious Poles decided to leave the country and find work abroad. On the one hand, this trend drained the country's economy, but on the other hand, it helped to fill it with money earned by Poles abroad, as practice shows that usually at least 50 per cent of migrants send part of their earnings to the country they left. This has also led to an increase in competences, as those who decide to return tend to come back from a more economically developed country with newly acquired skills.
Demographically, Poland's population peaked in 2023, reaching 41 million people. This surge was the result of migration caused by the war in Ukraine and led to record performance in many sectors of the Polish economy.
In turn, systematic infrastructure investments, largely funded by the EU, have allowed Poland to become an important transit route between the East, including Asia, and Western Europe. However, it is worth noting that Poland's current reputation abroad, one of the lowest among EU countries, is a potential risk in terms of exploiting the apparent trend of shortening supply chains from the Far East to Europe. This is another area that, while posing a serious political challenge, also offers great prospects if properly addressed.
The political changes in the Republic of Poland that took place in 2013 allow us to believe that Poland will continue on its path of rapid economic growth.
According to the McKinsey & Company report "How to raise Poland's ambitions? On the threshold of a new era, the challenges to be addressed to achieve this include, first of all: increasing the productivity of the Polish economy through strategic development of innovations in selected cross-cutting technologies, creating conditions for increased inward investment in Poland, including strengthening Poland's reputation as an attractive destination for investment and talent, ensuring a stable, efficient and affordable energy system through the energy transition, and consciously creating human resources with the professions of the future in mind.
Can Ukraine find inspiration in this? It seems that the political choices made here and now matter most. They shape the country's economy for decades to come and ultimately determine prosperity or lack thereof. The Ukrainian state, in addition to surviving, must be ready for a leap and a marathon.
Sylwia Krasoń-Kopaniarz, Managing Director, Head of International Operations at Impel Group, CEO of Impel Ukraine, for Liga.net
